Forecast of the Ukrainian car market for 2025: main trends and challenges

The Ukrainian car market in 2025 will find itself at the crossroads of numerous challenges and opportunities. Experts from the Institute for Car Market Research (IMR) have published an analytical forecast that sheds light on the main trends that will influence the dynamics of the market. Legislative changes, economic fluctuations, new environmental standards and other factors will have a significant impact on all segments of the car market, from passenger cars to commercial vehicles.

Impact of legislative changes on the market

One of the key factors that significantly affected the car market in 2024 is an innovation in the field of transport mobilization. According to the new rules, the state was given the opportunity to seize "excess" vehicles from private individuals for defense needs. This decision caused a wave of re-registration of cars to other individuals - relatives, friends or acquaintances, in order to avoid possible seizures.

These legislative changes have led to an unexpected increase in activity in certain market segments. However, despite the increase in the number of registrations, the shadow market has also increased, as a significant part of transactions began to take place outside official registers.

In addition, the introduction of new vehicle valuation principles made it difficult for small businesses involved in buying and selling cars to operate. As a result, many such businesses closed down, and the market largely shifted to larger players.

Passenger cars: stabilization after the recession

The passenger car segment is one of the most sensitive to changes. In 2024, the market showed an average monthly volume of about 80 thousand resales, but towards the end of the year there was a noticeable decline.

The forecast for 2025 indicates a likely stabilization of these indicators, although official statistics may show slightly underestimated data due to the spread of the "gray" market. Imports of "freshly driven" cars, which in 2024 decreased to 16 thousand per month, may decrease even more. The main reasons for this are both a general decline in purchasing power and changes in taxation.

Environmental standards and their impact on commercial vehicles

The Euro-6 environmental standard comes into force on January 1, 2025. This is one of the most significant innovations that will radically change the commercial transport market. New and used tractors, buses, trucks and special equipment imported into Ukraine must now meet the requirements of this standard for first registration.

The introduction of the Euro-6 standard will significantly limit the age of vehicles that can be imported into Ukraine - they must be no older than 9-10 years. This will lead to an increase in the price of used vehicles and stimulate the renewal of the commercial vehicle fleet. At the same time, it will create challenges for small and medium-sized businesses, which cannot always afford to invest in newer cars.

• Learn more about in-depth analytical research, expert forecasts and educational initiatives that contribute to the creation of a transparent and civilized car market in Ukraine and stay abreast of the latest trends and gain valuable information for successful activities in the automotive industry. Visit our partner's website   Institute of Car Market Research.

Electric cars: growth despite taxes

The electric vehicle market continues to show positive dynamics. Thanks to the privileges in effect in 2024, in particular "zero customs clearance", the popularity of electric vehicles among Ukrainians has increased significantly. These privileges will continue in 2025, which will stimulate further growth of this segment.

However, after the tax refund in 2026, the pace of electric vehicle sales may slow down. Even taking into account the increase in electricity tariffs, electric vehicles remain more economically advantageous compared to gasoline or diesel cars.

Fuel market: new realities for consumers

The increase in fuel excise taxes that took effect in September 2024 has already had an impact on the habits of Ukrainian drivers. In particular, prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) reached a record 37 hryvnias per liter, which reduced the economic feasibility of using gas-powered equipment. This may lead to a decrease in the share of "gas" cars on the market in 2025.

Rising gasoline and diesel prices will also affect the demand structure. More and more Ukrainians will pay attention to fuel-efficient cars or electric vehicles, which remain a profitable alternative.

Conclusions and prospects

The year 2025 will be a turning point for the Ukrainian car market. Legislative changes, the implementation of environmental standards, the economic situation, and changes in fuel prices will determine the dynamics of supply and demand.

The secondary market for passenger cars is expected to stabilize, but with a further decline in imports. The commercial vehicle market is adapting to the new requirements of the Euro 6 standard, although this will create additional challenges for business. Electric vehicles will remain a promising segment, and rising fuel prices will continue to influence consumer choices.

For those following automotive trends, it is important to stay up to date with the latest analytical research and forecasts in order to make informed decisions. The Automotive Research Institute remains a trusted source of information for those working or investing in the sector.

• The information in this article was prepared with the support of our partners   Institute of Car Market Research.