What will happen to car imports in 2022. Analytical forecast
2021 was a good year for the Ukrainian car market. Car sales have grown despite the global automotive crisis, the pandemic and its aftermath. Over the past 12 months, more than 500,000 cars with mileage have been imported to our country.
West Auto Hub together with experts from the Institute of Car Research have made a forecast of what will be the import of used vehicles in 2022.
This is a year of opportunities for the car business. It does not mean that it will be easy. At the top will be the one who will be able to curb the wave of change and take advantage of these new opportunities.
When temporary restrictions on entry into the EU appeared in the spring of 2020, it changed all the logistics of bringing used cars from Europe, says West Auto Hub CEO Yulia Rykovska . Instead of delivering cars on their own, dealers began to do it by truck . Then these restrictions were lifted, but this method of car delivery has not lost its popularity, because it is more convenient and often cheaper.
"If it weren't for the pandemic, the transition process could take much longer," Ms. Yulia said.
"We are witnessing the actual transformation of the natural market into a civilized one. From "singles" in the car business - to the formation of brands. From situational business to strategy and planning. And although we can not look to the future, we can predict it. Our experience and knowledge provide such an opportunity , ”says Stanislav Buchatsky , head of the Car Research Institute.
WHAT THE 2022 YEAR WILL BE FOR THE BUSINESS: CHANGES, TRENDS, NEW OPPORTUNITIES
Volumes of imports
High demand for used cars will remain. If the laws do not change, in 2022 Ukraine will import about half a million cars.
The car market with mileage will become more predictable: imports will be only official, without "Eurobills".
Prices and models
Cars with mileage in Ukraine will become more expensive in the second half of the year. The cost of used cars from abroad will increase by 15-20%. All because of the crisis of the world car industry .
More than half of car sales in Ukraine will continue to be cars worth up to $ 10,000. The reason is the low purchasing power of citizens. When Ukrainians become wealthier, they will buy more expensive cars.
The TOP of the most popular models of used cars will not change significantly.
Condition of cars and fraud
The quality of "freshly imported" cars may deteriorate due to their lack and complexity of purchase. Given that Ukrainians buy cheap cars, the choice will fall on cars in worse condition, with greater mileage or certain defects.
Increases car scams: twisted runs, masking defects and hiding real history.
Due to this, the services of checking the technical condition and history of the car abroad will become even more popular.
Countries
Difficulties with buying a car from Europe will stimulate business to look for new markets for imports. Imports of cars from Georgia, South Korea (from 5% to 10%) and even exotic countries such as the UAE may increase.
Cars from Europe will account for at least 60% of total imports. The share may increase if large European companies enter Ukraine. This may happen this year due to considerable interest in the Ukrainian car market.
About 30-35% of Americans will be on the market. However, difficulties with buying a car at insurance auctions and rising prices will force the car business to look for ways out. For example, due to the partial transition to the segment of cars without an accident past.
Auctions
Car auctions and platforms selling cars after leasing will be in demand. Since there is a high demand for used cars, but there is a shortage, these tools will help to buy a car more profitably.
Impact of quarantine
In the conditions of shortage of used cars, the winner will be the one who will have the opportunity to buy cars at all and even at a good price. This often means buying vehicles in bulk instead of one car. Preference will be given to those who have experience working with foreign dealers. There will be little to monitor ads on the Internet.
Everything that is "online" in the field of imports will prosper. Now you can buy, deliver and register a car remotely and the demand for it will grow.
Automation
The car business will look for ways to reduce the cost of processes. Automation will be developed, for example with the help of specialized CRM-systems.
Ways of growth
The formation of a civilized market and its transformation will continue. There will be a transition from "individual" to collective business. There will be even more brands, platforms and companies. At the same time, competition will increase. The car business will have to look for ways to grow. For example, using automotive market analytics to increase sales.
Credit and leasing
The sphere of financing the purchase of car loans and leasing programs will be developed. This can be one of the main tools to increase sales in the automotive business in 2022.
Inspection
Mandatory roadworthiness tests for private cars can have a strong impact on import trends. If it is like in Europe, cars in poor technical condition, with "cut" catalysts and soot filters may lose popularity. Whereas now everyone is focused only on the price, because no one controls such things.
Customs clearance
The state is moving towards "customs clearance in the smartphone". This was announced relatively recently, but since December 2, 2021, the mechanism has not worked. However, the movement towards "cars on the phone" will definitely be, because digitalization is one of the main directions declared by the current government.
What will be the customs clearance in 2022 can be read here .
Registration on parking lots
This is another innovation that may appear this year - registration of a "freshly driven" car with a run without a visit to the Service Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, right on the parking lot. The way it works with new cars.
Taxes
Changes in the calculation of taxes when importing cars should not be expected. This is influenced only by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Any bill to introduce them is a lengthy process.
RISKS
Exchange rate fluctuations
The higher the dollar exchange rate, the lower the purchasing power of Ukrainians. Accordingly, he can buy a car or cheaper or not buy at all. The depreciation of the dollar also negatively affects the ability to buy a car from abroad.
Economic crisis and political instability
It has been proven that people are ready to buy a car when they are confident in the economic situation in the country. Instability is always scary.
Changing laws
If certain groups of influence manage to lobby for a change in the current rules of imports - to increase taxes or introduce stricter environmental standards, the market may become the same as 5 years ago. Some people working in the car business will lose their source of income. The state budget will have less revenue. Related businesses will have lower profits. The appearance of another wave of "Eurobills" is not ruled out. Therefore, the association for the protection of economic interests - another challenge in 2022 for the business of importing used cars.